Budget 2018 – Share Ross’s Three Card Trick

Posted on October 23, 2017 by GerryD

Last year, the government allocated approximately €12 million to cycling which was made up of some €10.4 million from the budget and a supplement during the year of a further €1.6 million for greenways. Cycling groups including Cyclist.ie support the allocation of 10% of transport expenditure to cycling or, at the very least, a roadmap to ramp up investment in cycling to that level. We will judge the budget on this basis rather than on the totality of the allocation per se.

Budget 2018 has now been published and the government has approved additional current and capital expenditure by the DTT&S. The multi annual expenditure ceilings for the department are reproduced below from the Part III Estimates for Public Services 2018:

2018 Budget Table

The Department of Transport, Tourism & Sport uses the term ‘Land Transport’ to describe two main areas – Roads and Public Transport whereas Public Transport is an umbrella term which is used to encompass expenditure on buses, rail, walking and cycling. Thus the Budget 2018 allocation for cycling should be €165 million.

What was allocated to cycling? Well who knows? In the manner beloved of the DTT&S, they lump cycling and walking together and have promised €110 Million over four years. This works out at €27.5 Million per year on average. So how much will the Minister give to cycling? Well he could give €27 Million to cycling and €0.5 Million to walking. Then again, he could €0.5 Million to cycling and €27 Million to walking. Or he could nothing in the first three year and backload cycling in year 4. Like any three card trick, the viewer has to try to guess where the Queen (ie money) is.

Cycling does get some further mention of minor funding but it is the headline figure of €110 million which stands out. In contrast, Sweden with a modal share for cycling of 9% (2009) and with twice the population of Ireland has just announced an allocation of €35 million JUST for the promotion of E-Bikes.

The Minister did agree to provide €30 Million for greenways. It should be pointed out that this was under the heading of tourism rather than transport. While this involves more people cycling, it will do little to increase the 3% of people who currently cycle and is rightly categorised under recreation rather than transport as it does not address the problems of congestion, community health, sustainability and climate change which every day cycling does.

The Minister protests that he is unable to quantify how much his Department spends on cycling and his latest pronouncement in the Dáil is that he doesn’t understand modal change. It is hoped that he is a fast learner because in January when budget details have been confirmed to TII, NTA, local authorities and such like, Cyclist.ie proposes to find out through parliamentary questions just how paltry the allocation for cycling is and will forward the news to him.

On one level, it is astonishing that a mode of transport of transport which can carry over 25% of the population is so overlooked. At another level, however, it is hardly unsurprising as it is totally in keeping with the view set out in the totally autocentric document Strategic Investment Framework for Land Transport. There may be individuals in the Department with an alternative vision for the future but they only produce nice sounding policy documents. The decisions on finance remain firmly in the hands of those who favour road building.

Cycling Needs €145 Million Per Annum – Not Hype & Spin

Posted on October 1, 2017 by GerryD

Since Census 2016 published the report on commuting in June, there has been much hype and spin in the media about increases in cycling. However, the emphasis on a much lauded increase of 42% in cycling to work puts a false gloss on the results. Percentage changes are meaningless unless related to a time span and a starting point so the Department of Transport’s spin doctor should stop combining multi year results and instead report the results in terms of annual increases. In this case the time span is five years from the previous census and the 2016 level of cycling nationally is an overall low of 2.68%. As this was approximately the level of cycling in the year 2000, cycling nationally has essentially flatlined since then.

Year	1986	1991	1996	2002	2006	2011	2016
On foot	505,530	454,126	436,941	423,483	433,110	414,938	426,221
Bicycle	146,962	130,194	99,008	57,842	53,960	61,177	82,123
Bus, minibus or coach	323,914	337,788	369,586	341,299	326,949	288,562	313,097
Train, DART or LUAS	22,690	30,214	34,101	45,976	71,658	70,976	82,627
Motor cycle or scooter	16,680	13,756	13,164	20,250	14,338	9,312	8,565
Motor car: Driver	405,180	446,228	606,417	909,822	1,118,312	1,127,396	1,202,441
Motor car: Passenger	264,125	292,503	360,953	427,962	459,497	508,338	570,254
Other means (incl. Lorry or van)	36,239	50,188	59,291	118,800	149,928	134,115	140,227
Work mainly at or from home	196,982	234,101	172,893	110,821	119,918	89,729	96,057
Not stated	108,579	94,287	83,981	45,380	46,555	89,590	136,995
Total Workers /Students (Rows 1-10)*	2,026,881	2,083,385	2,236,335	2,501,635	2,794,225	2,794,133	3,058,607
	2,026,881	2,083,385	2,236,335	2,501,635	2,794,225	2,794,133	3,058,607

Total Commuters (Rows 1-8)	1,721,320	1,754,997	1,979,461	2,345,434	2,627,752	2,614,814	2,825,555
%Commuting by Car (Rows 6-8)	40.99%	44.95%	51.87%	62.10%	65.75%	67.69%	67.70%
%Cyclists wrt Total Commuters	7.25%	6.25%	4.43%	2.31%	1.93%	2.19%	2.68%

Source: Census 2016

Table 1: Means of Travel to Work, School and College (Nationally) 1986-2016

The increase in cycling from 2.19% in 2011 to 2.68% in 2016 is an increase of 22.6% for all people working and in education rather than the headline figure of 42% which only refers to people working. This increase equates to a more modest increase of 4.15% per annum. This would be good for a country with a high level of cycling but bad for a country like Ireland which is starting from a very low base. The increase in cycling by working people offsets a more modest increase in cycling by students to secondary school who are arguably a more important sector of the population as they are an indicator of future levels of cycling rather than ‘middle aged’ men in lycra who rediscover cycling. In this context, the greater number of female students driving to secondary school rather than cycling is a continuing cause of concern. By way of contrast, Vancouver reports annual increases of more than 30% per annum and Transport for London (TfL) report that bicycle use increased by 70% in six months on part of the high quality London Superhighways.

While the level of cycling in Dublin and other Irish cities is higher than the national level of 2.68%, Vancouver achieved 10% cycling to work from a low base in 1997 and Seville has increased its modal share for cycling from less than 0.5% in 2006 to around 7%. The National Cycling Policy Framework includes a target of 10% commuting by bike by 2020. At the rate of progress of the last five years in Ireland, the 2020 target will not be achieved nationally until 2047. This is the key statistic which comes out of the Census results and with the hype and spin stripped away, the lack of commitment and lack of progress is obvious. The implications for urban areas – more congestion, more air and noise pollution, decreased levels of activity by the general population and increased demands on the health services – are all too obvious. The failure to meet European targets on climate change will almost certainly result in a greater financial burden on the country.

Irish politicians have been “supporting” pro-bicycle policies for some twenty years but their continuing ineffectiveness is clear. When politicians in the Netherlands decided to design for bicycles rather than cars in the 1970s, the change was apparent within a year with the BBC sending a camera team overseas to record the radical developments. For similar change to happen in this country, the government must

(1) Significantly increase funding for cycling from its current levels of €12 Million per annum to €145 Million per annum, and

(2) Appoint a National Cycling Co-coordinator to the Department of Transport, Tourism and Sport in accordance with the 2009 National Cycling Policy Framework.

A budget of €145 Million for cycling would amount to 10% of the 2017 transport budget and would be in line with WHO recommendations. This funding is already available under the normal budgetary process and is entirely separate from the Mid-Term Review of the Capital Budget but to date there has been no commitment at a political level to prioritise the funding of walking and cycling. The emphasis on rural greenways may seem attractive to politicians but unless hard political decisions are taken to curb private cars and to prioritise cycling in urban areas, mass cycling will remain like the draining of the Shannon – a political aspiration. In the short term, the lack of political reaction to increasing cyclist fatalities and the postponement of decisions on safe cycling infrastructure in Dublin City do not augur well.

Countdown Clock to 10% Cycling

Posted on July 17, 2017 by GerryD

As we are fast approaching the government target date of 2020 for the achievement of 10% commuting trips and also 10% of total trips by bike, Maynooth Cycling Campaign decided to add a Countdown Clock to its website to mark the occasion. When we investigated how to do this, we found that there was a computer app (application) available. Based on the this assumption that progress will continue at the rate of the past five years, we estimate that the government target will be achieved in 2048. However, a problem arose, when we tried to set the countdown clock to 2048. The programme would only allow a countdown date of up to twenty years ie 2037. It would not allow a countdown far enough in the future. We managed to get around this however and our Countdown Clock shows that the 2020 target will not be achieved for another 30 years. Don’t hold your breath!

National Road Network Indicators 2016

Posted on April 29, 2017 by GerryD

The National Road Network Indicators for 2016 which was recently published by Transport Infrastructure Ireland (TII) makes for interesting reading. The report is split into five parts – Network, Economic, Road Condition, Safety and Accessibility/ Environment.

Nat_Rd_Indicators_2016

The first part deals with the extent of national roads, traffic levels, and level of service which essentially means whether a road is congested or not. Chart C1 shows the level of service during the morning peak and demonstrates that over the whole country the level of congestion is surprisingly low with congestion apparent only in the vicinity of the cities – Dublin, Cork, Limerick and Galway. With a surprising degree of honesty, the report admits that

Following the substantial investment in National Roads over the last decade, most route sections are operating to the highest standard of service. However, for certain roads such as the M50, further interventions such as demand management are required to ensure that higher levels of service are achieved.

So it concedes that most of the network is operating to a high standard and accepts that congestion will worsen on the M50 unless more measures such as demand management are introduced. As the principle type of demand management is road pricing or a congestion charge, this will not be to the liking of government which is opposed to such measures. The most interesting sections are Charts E and F which show Trip Duration and Trip Distance for National and Regional Roads and which are based on national computer models. The main findings are

28% of trips last less than 10 minutes
11% of trips are for a distance of less than 5km
38% of trips are for less than 10km
24% of trips are less than 7.5km
In 2016 traffic growth was 4.6% across the network
In 2016 growth in the Dublin region was 6.9%.

The 24% of trips less than 7.5km show the potential for substituting trips by car for trips by bicycle. It demonstrates clearly that congestion will not be solved by building more roads but by providing for more efficient modes of transport in terms of space and speed.

The second part Economy deals with estimates of future levels of population, car ownership and vehicles kilometres. By 2050 the ESRI forecast that the population will increase to between 5 and 5.6 million while TII expects total car ownership to increase from 2.5 million in 2013 to 3.5-4.0 million. The number of vehicle kilometres travelled is also forecast to increase from just over 40 billion in 2013 to between 52.0 and 58.5 billion in 2050 depending on future growth rate. Obviously, TII don’t agree with the concept of Peak Car or Peak Car Use. It also appears not to agree with Smarter Travel targets for reduction in commuting by private car although Smarter Travel uses a short time frame to 2020 while TII forecasts take a longer time frame to 2050. Although traffic growth was 4.6% nationally (and 7.4 in the Mid East region ie the commuter belt), it assumes that traffic will grow at an average rate of about 1% between 2016 and 2050 but this still implies an overall increase of nearly 40%. Just where this traffic will go is unclear but it is likely to lead to an increase in demands for yet more investment in roads for motorised traffic. This is already apparent in calls by groups like the Small Firms Association for a new motorway, the Leinster Outer Orbital Ring, to be developed to supplement the M50 at the same time as TII complains about inadequate funding to maintain existing roads.

The final section looks at Accessibility/Environment and includes the statement “the key benefit of a quality road system is improved accessibility to jobs”. This statement can be interpreted in two ways. The benign view is that a quality road system will reduce congestion and reinforce economic development thereby leading to increased employment. The alternative view is that the development of a better quality road system will lead to an increase in congestion and longer commuter times due to induced demand ie more people choosing to travel further to jobs because of an improved road system. Now looking at Dublin and the other Irish cities, I wonder which view predominates?

How much does Ireland spend on cycling?

Posted on February 23, 2017 by GerryD

Local and central governments are fond of ‘promoting cycling’. They have been promoting it for some twenty years with grants here and there, photo opportunities at the opening of cycle facilities, giving out hi vizjackets, exhortations to get on your bike, advertisements in the media and so on. In most of this time, cycling nationally has declined. Brendan Behan once suggested that in order to revive the Irish language, books which were banned for their sexual content in English should be printed in Irish. Perhaps local and central government should trying promoting car use – the outcome could hardly be worse!

There is a lack of knowledge of how much Ireland actually allocates to cycling. It is difficult to be precise as cycling infrastructure can be provided by funding from central or local government but can also be provided by private developers in the same way as other infrastructure such as road or sewers. Furthermore, some types of cycling infrastructure such as shared footpaths or greenways are provided to be shared with pedestrians so how do you determine the separate contribution for cyclists from pedestrians?

In most countries the critical figure is the amount of funding provided by central government. In 2014 in response to a question in the Dáil from Deputy Catherine Murphy, the Minister for Transport reported that a total of €11.1 Million was allocated by his Department and gave a breakdown of the allocation to individual local authorities. However, this was only the direct budget allocation from the Department. The National Transport Authority also provided funding of €8.2 Million to local authorities In the Greater Dublin Region and in May the government announced a Stimulus Programme which included funding of €10 million for greenway developments. Finally, in November, a supplementary budget was passed which included funding of €1.6 million also for greenways. Overall it is estimated that funding of €21.2 million was directly and indirectly provided for cycling by central government. With a population of 4.66 million, this equates to an expenditure of €4.55 per person for 2014.

How do we compare internationally? Well pretty badly. The Netherlands spends approximately €30 per person per annum. In the UK, politicians at Westminster estimate that expenditure of £10 per head per annum is required. Norway, with a similar population as Ireland has just announced an investment of almost €1 Billion in cycling infrastructure although it helps if you have extensive oil resources. What is clear that unless spending is increased substantailly, the level of cycling in Ireland (outside of the capital) will remain under 3%.

Cycle Right – No Substitute for Infrastructure

Posted on January 30, 2017 by GerryD

Maynooth Cycling Campaign welcomes the launch of Cycle Right and congratulate Cycling Ireland and Celbridge’s Barbara Connolly on their leading role in its development. We now hope that the Department of Transport, Tourism and Sport will follow up with the second essential element to achieve mass cycling to school – increased funding for the provision of high quality infrastructure. Being able to cycle is not the same as willing to cycle and unless the road environment is made safe for all ages the Minister’s hope for support from parents and for more children to choose cycling will remain that – a hope.

In his press release, the Minister also expresses a hope that the initiative will ‘show his commitment to improving road safety and reducing the number of fatalities’. Considering that the bulk of fatalities involved drivers and pedestrians, it is hard to see how cycle training will improve road safety generally. His use of ‘we’ as in …we must … remember to take particular care around vulnerable road users such as pedestrians and cyclists… reveal with which group of road users his empathies lie. While details of the rollout of Cycle Right have not been revealed, the key figure will be the outcome of cycle training – that is the increase in the number of children cycling to school. This will show the Minister’s true level of ambition and commitment to cycling.

Most countries provide cycle training to children as a means of encouraging cycling. In the Netherlands, having learnt how to cycle from their parents at a young age, children undergo a cycle test at the age of eleven so the test is in reality a confirmation of their ability rather than the acquisition of a new skill. In the UK, most parents do not cycle and it is likely that many feel that they do not have the skills to teach their children. While children there are being trained in large numbers, this does not lead to them cycling. Conditions on UK streets simply remain too unpleasant and too dangerous for more than a very small proportion of parents to allow their children to cycle. Unless additional funding for infrastructure is provided, the mistakes in the UK will be repeated in Ireland.

Irish Independent & Victim Blaming

Posted on January 23, 2017 by GerryD

We are only three weeks into January 2017 and already there has been 11 fatalities on our roads. Seven are pedestrians, two are drivers and two are passengers. The reactions of government and government organisations are remarkable. Although drink driving has been identified as one of the causes of the increase in fatalities, Shane Ross, the Minister for Transport, Tourism and Sport has outlined how he wants to ‘name and shame’ the offenders. Well name them anyway. It is debatable how many will feel any shame.

Of the seven dead, one happened in an urban area, two had just come off a bus, two were walking along a national road – one in daylight, one in the dark, one died on the M50 while the last was walking along a regional road on the fringe of the city. The first four out of the seven were killed in a situation where motorists should have seen or anticipated vulnerable road users. In an article on road safety in the Irish Independent, the journalist Luke Byrne referred three times to the Road Safety Authority urging pedestrians to make themselves more visible. In contrast, there was only one reference urging drivers to slow down. It is not known if this emphasis was as a result of the Road Safety Authority briefing or journalistic licence. Either way, the primary responsibility does not lie with vulnerable road users – they are the wrong target.

Stop Climate Chaos -Discussion on Strategy

Posted on January 13, 2017 by GerryD

The Letter below was sent to the Stop Climate Chaos members including Cyclist.ie (of which Maynooth Cycling Campaign is a part) on a Draft Strategic Plan which was discussed on Thursday 12th January.

From: Oisin Coghlan – Friends of the Earth <oisin@foe.ie>
Date: Tue 10 Jan 2017 at 17:47
Subject: [SCC members] Document for discussion and decision at Thursday morning’s meeting in Concern
To: stopclimatechaos@googlegroups.com <stopclimatechaos@googlegroups.com>

Dear all,

You will remember last year that our coalition decided that we should review our ambition and our structure in the light of the increased urgency of climate action on foot of the Paris Agreement and our own Climate Action Act.

A small Review Group was set up last summer: Lorna from Trocaire, Phil from An Taisce, Sorley from Christian Aid and myself. We were mandated to look at what was happening in England and Scotland, consult various external stakehoders, and come back to you the members with a proposal.

That proposal is now attached in the form of a draft Strategic Plan and Thursday’s meeting is to consider it and the next steps.

The Plan takes as its starting point the campaign vision we agreed last year: “That Ireland makes a rapid and just transition to a carbon free future”.

It proposes three strategic objectives, in the following areas

1) Growing the climate movement

2) Influencing policy

3) Engaging the widest possible public audience

Thursday’s meeting will be asked to approve each of these objectives.

The second part of the Plan is about about “Delivering our Vision”

That involves a proposal for an independent chairperson as our chief spokesperson, clear governance procedures and a process to enable us to increase SCC’s staff capacity from about 0.6 FTE (i.e. around one person on average 3 days a week) to about 1.8 FTE (full-time equivalent).

The last element of this is the financing, which has two dimensions. Firstly, a renewed and if possible enhanced buy-in from the member organizations of SCC. And secondly a proposal that SCC should for the first time apply for institutional grant funding. Lorna will outline the first opportunity for this at the meeting on Thursday for your consideration.

I’ve often said that Stop Climate Chaos is the smoothest running and most effective coalition I have ever worked in. That is down to the enthusiastic participation of many members over the years and the rock solid trust and commitment of all members. The current climate policy landscape in Ireland means there are big opportunities for our coalition. Thursday’s meeting is about gearing up to make the most of them, rather that risk missing them. We very much hope you can join us at 10am on Thursdsay in Concern in Grantham Street.

Yours,

Oisin

on behalf of the SCC Review Group

Increased Number of Cyclist Fatalities but Slight Dip in Trend

Posted on January 12, 2017 by GerryD

At the end of December, the RSA issued their customary end of year press release on road fatalities. In 2016 there was a 15% increase in fatalities as 186 people were killed on Irish roads including 10 cyclists. This was one more cyclist fatality than in 2015 and the second highest since the low point in 2009.

For cyclists the 3 year average shows a slight dip compared to 2015. The general trend since 2009 shows increased fatalities following increased traffic as the economy recovers rather than any safety in numbers effect from more cycling.

2016-fatalities Number of Cyclist Fatalities 1996 – 2016 (No. of Fatalities vs Year)

Although the large increase in fatalities had been well flagged from earlier in the year, the response of Shane Ross, the Minister for Transport, Tourism and Sport was to issue a press release reminding people to share the road and a promise of more legislation rather than a government commitment to enforce existing laws. We expect this to have a similar impact on road fatalities in 2017 as Project EDWARD. For those who do not know, Project EDWARD (European Day Without A Road Fatality) saw European police forces and road safety organisations tackle road safety by urging motorists to sign a pledge. In Ireland, on that day two people died.